How the Bitcoin run computes

This page gathers in one place what the tab computes, which figures it takes from where, and what every result is counted in. It describes the arithmetic and is not advice.

Back to Bitcoin

What is computed

You set a share of the basket for a year. The page multiplies that share by the basket of that year and divides by the coins in existence at the end of that year. The result is the value of one coin in this calculation, and nothing else.

Every amount is in US dollars, whatever currency you have chosen elsewhere, because every source of the basket counts in dollars and a conversion would add a rate nobody set.

What would have to be true. The sentence under the stage takes the share above today's share and applies it to the basket of the chosen year. That is the amount that would have to move out of the other lines into Bitcoin. It is compared with the gold above ground today and spread evenly over the years from now until then. It names a size and makes no judgement.
Return per year (USD). The return on the tile is the average yearly return between the first and the last year-end close of the product's price file: 101.8 % per year. End of 2011: US$5. End of 2025: US$87,509. Largest fall from a year-end high: 73.6 %, 2017 to 2018.

The basket, line by line

Five lines, each in US dollars at the end of the year named, plus Bitcoin at today's value. The sum is called a comparison size and never the wealth of the world. These are gross claims, part of which face each other. A bond is one side's debt and the other side's asset, so adding them counts some of it twice.

Comparison size without Bitcoin 577 trillion US dollars, at the end of 2025. Gold above ground is 5.18 % of it. Bitcoin is added at today's value only, so its share stands on the Bitcoin tab.

Debt securities, loans and broad money have no published world total. Each of the three is a sum over the countries that report, and so a lower bound. The share of Bitcoin drawn from the basket is therefore if anything slightly too high.

Debt securities

Value. 160 trillion US dollars, at the end of 2025. derived2025
Source. Bank for International Settlements, Debt Securities Statistics. Debt securities issued by residents, all markets, sectors, maturities and currencies, in US dollars. Fetched 19 October 2026. Source
Calculation. The national values for the fourth quarter of 2025, added up over 49 reporting economies. The euro area total is not counted again, because its members are in the sum one by one.
Note. The bank publishes a world total only for international debt securities, not for the whole stock. The line is therefore derived from the official national values. Countries without a total for the quarter are missing, among them India, Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong, which makes it a lower bound.

Listed equities

Value. 141 trillion US dollars, at the end of 2025. official2025
Source. World Federation of Exchanges, market capitalisation of listed domestic companies, world, end of year, as published by the World Bank. Fetched 19 October 2026. Source
Calculation. Taken as published. Domestic companies only, so a company listed on two exchanges is counted once, and the same series reaches back to 2010.
Note. The World Federation of Exchanges is the association of the exchanges and not an authority. Its figure is kept as institutional and shown with the official mark, with this note behind it.

Broad money

Value. 100 trillion US dollars, at the end of 2025. derived2025
Source. The five largest currency areas. United States from the Federal Reserve Board (H.6), euro area from the European Central Bank, United Kingdom from the Bank of England, China and Japan from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank (CC BY 4.0). Converted at the exchange rates of the Federal Reserve Board (H.10). Fetched 21 October 2026. Source
Calculation. US M2 plus euro area M3 plus UK M4 for December 2025, plus broad money of Japan at the end of 2025 and of China at the end of 2024, each converted to US dollars at the rate of that year end and added up.
Note. There is no freely usable world total of broad money in US dollars. The line is therefore the sum of the five largest currency areas and a lower bound, because every other country is missing. The World Bank has no figure for China for 2025 yet, so China stands at its value for the end of 2024.

Loans outside securities

Value. 146 trillion US dollars, at the end of 2025. derived2025
Source. Bank for International Settlements, Credit to the Non-financial Sector, minus the debt securities of companies and governments from the Debt Securities Statistics, in US dollars. Fetched 19 October 2026. Source
Calculation. For each country in the fourth quarter of 2025, total credit minus the debt securities of non-financial companies and of the government. Added up over the 37 countries that publish both.
Note. The bank does not publish loans on their own, so the line is derived. India, Russia, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Colombia and New Zealand lack the values by sector and are missing, which makes it a lower bound.

Gold above ground

Value. 30 trillion US dollars, at the end of 2025. derived2025
Source. An estimate. The gold mined in all history according to the U.S. Geological Survey, 215,990 tonnes at the end of 2025, times the World Bank's average gold price of December 2025 (Pink Sheet, CC BY 4.0). Fetched 21 October 2026. Source
Calculation. Tonnes times troy ounces per tonne times US dollars per ounce: 215,990 × 32,150.7466 × 4,309.
Note. The Geological Survey publishes no stock above ground, only the gold produced so far: 187,000 tonnes up to the end of 2016, plus the world mine production of every year since. The estimate assumes that all of it is still there. Lost gold is not deducted.

Bitcoin

Value. No stored value. Bitcoin enters the basket at today's value only. derived
Source. Coins in circulation today by the protocol's issuance schedule times the checked price of one reporting date, stated in reports of listed companies. There is no freely usable price series for Bitcoin, and so no live price. Source
Calculation. The five lines are carried from their year to today at the rate of the last 15 years. Bitcoin today is added, coins times price in US dollars. Today's share is Bitcoin today divided by this sum.

Why real estate is missing

No office publishes the value of all homes and commercial buildings in the world. There are only estimates by companies, and this page uses only official or openly licensed figures. So real estate is not in the basket.

The comparison size is therefore smaller than everything people own, and the share of Bitcoin drawn from it is correspondingly higher. The page says so where the sum stands.

Why art and collectibles are missing

For art, collectibles and similar holdings there are only industry estimates, with no figure from an office or an exchange behind them. Next to the other lines they would be small and would barely move the share of Bitcoin. A line like that would add more doubt to the basket than size, so it is left out.

The three growth paths of the basket

The basket of today grows by one yearly rate until the year you choose. Three paths offer a rate. The tab offers only the paths that have a figure with a source.

as the last 15 years. The yearly rate from 2010 to 2025, worked out from the sources themselves: 4.9 % a year. Only lines with a figure for 2010 count. Where a source covered fewer countries in 2010, its 2025 value is taken for exactly the countries of 2010, so new coverage is not counted as growth. derived2010 to 2025
like the world economy since 2010. The nominal growth of world output in US dollars from 2010 to 2025, from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank (CC BY 4.0). The rate is the past growth of world output from 2010 to 2025 (World Bank), not a forecast and not this basket. That it goes on and that the basket follows it is an assumption. 3.9 % a year assumption2010 to 2025
no further growth. The basket stays where it is today. The rate is nought, and every change in the value of a coin then comes from the share and the supply alone.
Blend of two paths. With two paths chosen, a slider runs from nought to a hundred percent between them. It blends the rates and not the values, so the blended path is still one even path without a kink.

The share path

The share runs from today's share to the share you set in the year you set. In between it follows an S curve: slow at first, fastest in the middle, slow again at the end. After that year the share stays constant. There are no steps, so every year from 2026 to 2050 can be read.

Up to 3 anchors replace the S curve with a path of your own. Each anchor is a year and a share. Between the anchors the share runs along a smooth curve that passes through every anchor and never goes above or below the two anchors on either side of it.

The share dial opens on today's share. Its marks are read out of the basket, and none of them is a view.

as today. 0.00 %, Bitcoin divided by the comparison size. derived
as gold today. 5.18 %, gold above ground divided by the comparison size. derived
as gold and Bitcoin together. 5.18 %, gold and Bitcoin together. derived

The corridor

A straight line through the year-end closes on a log-log scale: log10(price in US dollars) = a + b × log10(days since 3 January 2009), by least squares. Closes from 31 December 2011 to 31 December 2025, 15 years. Last fitted on 31 December 2025: a = -16.154, b = 5.592.

A spread is the standard deviation of the distances from the line in log10, here 0.354. One spread is a factor of 2.26 on the price. The bands lie at one, two and three spreads above and below.

73.3 % of the year-end closes lay within one spread of the trend, 93.3 % within two, 33.3 % above the trend, 66.7 % below it.

A regression over the past describes the past. It says nothing about the future. Right of today the page shows only what you set as your own assumption.

The trend today is the line carried forward to today, extrapolated from 15 year values, not a forecast.

Continuation of the regression from 15 year values, not a forecast. The line carries the regression over the year-end closes on to the chosen year, the bands at the same distance. It shows where the line so far leads, not what will happen, and it is no recommendation.

Source. Year-end close, evidenced from Galaxy Digital Inc., DQYDJ, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and others. Each value is the close on 31 December at 24:00 UTC in US dollars, read by hand from published documents of several publishers: annual reports filed with the US securities regulator and press reports. A year counts as evidenced with two sources that mean exactly this moment. With one such source or only sources for another moment (4 pm New York, a year end without a time) the page shows the range of all sources. Euro values are the dollar value divided by the ECB reference rate of the last trading day, converted here. No exchange and no price site was used as a source. The current year ends with the checked price of the latest reporting date, where there is one. Fetched 22 October 2026. Source
One coin. Checked price of 30 September 2026, not live. Alpha Modus Holdings, Inc. (Form 8-K, 01.10.2026), Strive, Inc. (Form 8-K, 05.10.2026), PowerCompute, Inc. (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 08.10.2026) Source

Limits

The line depends on the period: a later start gives another slope, so the page fits each start year on its own. A spread measures how far the days lay apart, it is not a probability for tomorrow. The page names no future prices and gives no signals.

Supply by protocol

The value of one coin is divided by the coins in existence at the end of the year. That number comes from the issuance schedule of the protocol: a new block about every ten minutes, a reward that halves every 210,000 blocks, and never more than 21,000,000 coins. It is not read from a chart and not estimated.

Coins that are lost or never move are counted all the same. Nobody can say how many there are, and a guess would be a figure without a source.

19,854,750 BTC at the end of 2025. derived2025
20,509,875 BTC at the end of 2030. derived2030
20,918,344 BTC at the end of 2040. derived2040
20,984,742 BTC at the end of 2050. derived2050

A reading hint on portfolio shares

Asset managers and banks publish considerations on how large a part of a portfolio Bitcoin could take. This page takes over none of those figures and does not repeat them. A part of a portfolio is also something other than the share of the basket on this page. Whoever wants to read such a publication finds one example of each kind here.

An asset manager. BlackRock Investment Institute, Sizing bitcoin in portfolios, December 2024. Fetched 19 October 2026. Source
A bank. Morgan Stanley, Global Investment Committee, Investing in Crypto: Diversifying Your Portfolio. Fetched 19 October 2026. Source

What every figure is counted in

The line under every result says it in keywords: nominal in USD · comparison size, not wealth · supply by protocol · no forecast

nominal in USD. Every amount is in US dollars, the currency all sources of the basket count in, and is not adjusted for inflation.
comparison size, not wealth. The sum of the basket is a size to compare with and not the wealth of the world, because part of its claims face each other.
supply by protocol. The value of one coin is divided by the supply of the protocol in that year, as the section on supply describes.
no forecast. Nothing on the tab says what the share will be. Every figure is the arithmetic of a share you set.

Where a figure comes from

Every figure with a source carries one of three marks. The mark says where it comes from, never how good it is.

official Published by an office, an index provider or an exchange, or written into the protocol itself. Where a year is given it is the year the figure is from.
derived Computed on this page out of a published series. The series is named with the mark.
assumption Set by you here. Nobody published this figure, and it is not a forecast.

Sources, with the day they were fetched

Every line names the publisher, the last year the series covers and the day the figures were last fetched. The full list of every source in the product is on the sources page.

Debt securities: Bank for International Settlements, Debt Securities Statistics. Covers up to 2025, fetched 19 October 2026. Source
Listed equities: World Federation of Exchanges, published by the World Bank. Covers up to 2025, fetched 19 October 2026. Source
Broad money: Federal Reserve Board, European Central Bank, Bank of England, World Bank (China, Japan). Covers up to 2025, fetched 21 October 2026. Source
Loans outside securities: Bank for International Settlements, Credit to the Non-financial Sector. Covers up to 2025, fetched 19 October 2026. Source
Gold above ground: U.S. Geological Survey (estimate of the stock) and World Bank (Pink Sheet). Covers up to 2025, fetched 21 October 2026. Source
Bitcoin: issuance schedule of the protocol to about 2140 and the checked price of one reporting date from company reports. Source
Listed shares of the United States (comparison mark, not part of the basket): World Federation of Exchanges, published by the World Bank, same series as the shares line, country United States. Covers up to 2025, fetched 20 October 2026. Source

All sources