Which thinking traps sit in a historical average?
An average from ten years is not a promise about the next ten.
Every historical average carries the period it was taken from. Move the starting year and the figure moves with it, sometimes by several percentage points.
Short series are the most sensitive. A few years of data cannot tell a rate from a run of luck, and a start right before or right after a crash decides half of the result.
How to read this in the simulator
In the calculator every historical average carries its period. On the comparison page you can set the starting year yourself and watch the same series change its figure.
What the figure does not say
None of these figures is a forecast. The past is the only thing that can be measured, and it is measured here; what follows from it for the coming years is not in the data.
Source: Annual values of the comparison series, as of 2025, retrieved 2026-10-05
Education, not advice. Disclaimer