Spread instead of guessing
Nobody knows in advance which investment will lead next year. Spreading means not betting everything on one answer. A look back at two freely available series from 1971 to 2025, both in US dollars: the S&P 500 with dividends, and gold.
The S&P 500 alone grew by 11.12 % a year, its worst year was 2008 at -36.55 %. Gold alone grew by 9.04 % a year, its worst year was 2013 at -27.48 %. Half and half, brought back to half and half every year, the yearly return of the mix is half the share return plus half the gold return. That way it grew by 11.19 % a year, and its worst year was 2008 at -17.47 %, because gold rose by 1.62 % that year.
A mix fell less in its worst year than either part alone. Looking back that is arithmetic, not a forecast.
Half shares and half gold grew by 11.19 % a year from 1971 to 2025, and its worst year was -17.47 % instead of -36.55 % for shares alone.
S&P 500 · 1971 to 2025
Questions people ask
What does spreading an investment mean?
Not putting all of it into one investment. If the parts do not fall in the same years, the whole falls less than its worst part.
Did a mix of shares and gold fall less?
From 1971 to 2025, half and half rebalanced every year, its worst year was -17.47 %. Shares alone lost -36.55 % in their worst year.
Does spreading also lower the return?
Over this period it did not. The mix grew by 11.19 % a year, shares alone by 11.12 %. That is a look back, not a rule for the future.
Source: Annual values of the comparison series, as of 2025, retrieved 2026-11-09
Shares, gold and a mix of both over five decades, with the worst year of each.
The simulation, the comparison and the Beam stay free.
Education, not advice. Disclaimer