Staying with it when prices fall
A savings plan has to get through bad years. An example with the S&P 500 series with dividends, using the returns in US dollars and no exchange rate: €100 a month from the start of 2000 to the end of 2025, calculated year by year the way the simulation does. At the end of 2008, after a year of -36.55 %, the portfolio stood at €8,992 with €10,800 paid in.
Whoever kept paying had €171,198.78 at the end of 2025 with €31,200 paid in. Whoever sold at the end of 2008, saved only into an account without interest in 2009 and went back in at the start of 2010 had €150,966.39, so €20,232.39 less. The one year outside was 2009, at +25.94 %.
A savings plan works across all its years, the bad ones included.
€20,232.39 less at the end of 2025 after a single year out, in 2009.
Year by year like the simulation's Monte-Carlo, with the real order of years instead of a drawn one: the balance times one plus the return, plus the year's contributions with half a year of return. Returns of the S&P 500 with dividends in US dollars, amounts without an exchange rate.
Questions people ask
What did one year out of the market after 2008 cost a savings plan?
With €100 a month in the S&P 500 with dividends from 2000, about €20,232 by the end of 2025. Returns in US dollars, without an exchange rate.
How did the S&P 500 do in 2008 and 2009?
With dividends, minus 36.55% in 2008 and plus 25.94% in 2009, in US dollars, after the series in the product.
Does this example say what to do in a crash?
No. It is one past path. Another period would give other figures, and the past sets no rule for the future.
Source: Annual values of the comparison series, as of 2025, retrieved 2026-11-09
One past path, once with and once without a year out of the market.
The simulation, the comparison and the Beam stay free.
Education, not advice. Disclaimer