What the corridor shows and what it does not
A corridor lays a trend line through past prices and measures how far they strayed from it. It plots the logarithm of the price against the logarithm of the days since 3 January 2009.
A worked example with the 15 verified year-end prices from 2011 to 2025: the spread around the line, one band, equals a factor of 2.26. One band above the line means a little over double, one band below less than half. 11 of the 15 year ends lay within one band.
A corridor describes how far prices strayed from a line. About future prices it says nothing.
With the 15 year ends from 2011 to 2025 one band equals a factor of 2.26, and 11 of the 15 lay within one band.
Least squares on the logarithm of the price against the logarithm of the days since 3 January 2009, one year-end price a year.
Questions people ask
What is a bitcoin corridor?
A trend line through past prices on logarithmic axes, with bands at the distance of the typical spread around that line. It describes the past.
Can a corridor predict the bitcoin price?
No. It measures how far past prices strayed from a line. Whether future prices will lie within that band is not part of the calculation.
Why does a corridor use logarithms?
Because the price has risen many times over the years. On logarithmic axes each equal step is a tenfold increase, which makes early and late years comparable.
Source: Bitcoin-Jahresschlüsse, je Jahr mindestens zwei öffentliche Belege, as of 2025, retrieved 2026-10-22
The year-end prices and the trend line, both axes logarithmic, with one or two bands.
The simulation, the comparison and the Beam stay free.
Education, not advice. Disclaimer